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Browse the World Service episodes
The first 10 episodes broadcast on the BBC World Service were described in the programmes as being "Special Editions". From episode 11, this tag was dropped. Episode 1 (Special Edition) (13/01/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00msxhx Episode 2 (Special Edition) (20/01/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00mwzcl Episode 3 (Special Edition) (28/01/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00n1j58 World's largest cities: Which is the world's largest city? It is discovered that this is not easy to state as the definition of a city is hard to pin down. It demonstrates the need for careful definitions of anything you are trying to measure. Episode 4 (Special Edition) (04/02/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00n6z6s Episode 5 (Special Edition) (11/02/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00nftfl Famine: How is a famine defined? The United Nations use the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC scale) which defines famine as being at point five on a one to five scale. However, point four is still classified as a humanitarian emergency. This highlights the difference that can exist between technical definitions of a word and its meaning in general language and can cause confusion in media reports. Episode 6 (Special Edition) (18/02/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00np2r3 Accuracy of the groundhog: Each year on 2nd February in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, Groundhog Day takes place. The groundhog predicts whether or not an early spring will occur by whether or not he "see his shadow". An analysis of the accuracy of the predictions is discussed. Repeated as a bonus podcast item, in addition to the usual broadcasts, 02/02/2018 on Radio 4 and the World Service (see Radio 4 Series 42 Episode 4 (02/02/2018), World Service Episode 317 (02/02/2018)). Episode 7 (Special Edition) (25/02/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00nwqrh Using subsets of survey data - a cautionary tale: A report concerning an internet survey which was reported as showing that the majority of Syrians supported President Assad during civil unrest. It emerges that the survey was actually of people from a much wider area than just Syria but the way in which the survey had been reported meant that media attention was drawn to an analysis of the sub-population of those that lived in Syria. These numbered less than 100 people but the results from these were reported as being for the whole country. It is mentioned that in such polls, sample sizes of less than 1000 are considered inadvisable. The opportunity to calculate a confidence interval is not taken up in the programme but could be done. Working hours in Europe: Data on the number of hours worked by adults in different European countries has different rankings depending on whether you look at hours worked per adult or per working adult or if you take part/full-time and self-employed working into account. The rankings are different again if you take productivity into account. Episode 8 (Special Edition) (03/03/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00p34zj Dollar a day: A "dollar a day" has become a well-known measure of poverty. The history of this measure is discussed along with its usefulness for reducing poverty now and in the future. Episode 9 (Special Edition) (10/03/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00p98ms Episode 10 (Special Edition) (17/03/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00ph369 Risk of death: A study into the effect of eating meat on life expectancy was reported in several inappropriate ways, including a suggestion that eating mean increased the risk of death. David Spiegelhalter gives a correct interpretation of the findings of this study, in terms that are understandable by non-experts. Also discussed are issues concerning how the public should interpret frequent stories about food and risks to health, including those studies that appear to contradict others. The issue of whether cause and effect can be inferred from these studies is also discussed. Episode 11 (24/03/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00pp577 Episode 12 (31/03/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00q876m Hans Rosling, Gapminder and Statistics for different countries: Hans Rosling is interviewed about the statistics associated with developing countries. He is forthright in making the point that data for individual countries need to be considered rather than for groups of countries and that the label "developing" applied to countries may be misused. Episode 13 (07/04/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00q8900 Episode 14 (14/04/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00qdrqw Episode 15 (21/04/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00qpj9l Episode 16 (28/04/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00qy7qm Episode 17 (05/05/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00r49g3 Episode 18 (12/05/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00rc9df Episode 19 (19/05/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00rrvw9 Episode 20 (26/05/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00s473m Average wages in Australia and the UK: The average wage in Australia is apparently much higher than in the UK. The possibility that this is due to different calculation methods is investigated. The effect of exchange rates and prices are also discussed. Episode 21 (02/06/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00sdr9m Estimating the number of images of the Queen: An attempt is made to estimate the number of images of the Queen that have ever been created. The various sources used are discussed as are issues about estimating the unestimable. Episode 22 (09/06/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00sw2w4 Daniel Kahnemann and Fast Thinking: An interview with Daniel Kahnemann discusses "Fast Thinking" - immediate, "gut" responses to probability questions. These responses are often wrong and more detailed consideration of the known facts would lead to different responses. Examples are given, including probability calculations. Episode 23 (16/06/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00t4ynz Calculating probabilities of coincidences: A discussion of the probabilities of coincidental meetings, including the example from the Radio 4 broadcast of 04/05/2012 and other examples and calculations. See also Radio 4 Series 25 Episode 3 (04/05/2012). Episode 24 (23/06/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00tdzyz Episode 25 (30/06/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00trs0f Adjusting for inflation when considering film box office takings: The success of films are often judged by their takings at the box office. But inflation needs to be taken into account when comparing new films with old. Examples are given. Dying on your birthday: A report suggested a notable increased chance of dying on your birthday rather than on any other particular day of the year. It is suggested that this effect may be due to errors in the data with the same date incorrectly being used for both dates of birth and death. Episode 26 (07/07/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00txv33 World cannabis smoking league table: In a table ranked by the proportion of adults smoking cannabis, Palau came top with a figure far in excess of any other country. It appears that this result may be due to how the data were collected. The importance of making sure figures "make sense" is discussed as is the importance of giving indications of how much uncertainty is associated with estimates. Probability and the Higgs boson: The discovery of the Higgs Boson was announced because scientists had achieved a "5 sigma" result. An explanation of what this means is given in more understandable terms. See also Radio 4 Series 24 Episode 3 (16/12/2011) and Radio 4 Series 27 Episode 6 (28/12/2012). Episode 27 (14/07/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00vbzrt Episode 28 (21/07/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00vjqx2 Episode 29 (28/07/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00vtkct Episode 30 (04/08/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00w2s4q Episode 31 (12/08/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00wcwx7 Episode 32 (18/08/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00wq5n8 Episode 33 (25/08/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00x24qt Episode 34 (01/09/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00x8hn0 Episode 35 (08/09/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00msxfl Episode 36 (15/09/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00xvb7w International comparisons of crime statistics: NaÃ¯ve comparisons of crime statistics from different countries portrays Sweden as having very poor statistics concerning rape. The perils of comparing crime statistics across nations are discussed with emphasis on the definitions used and the way the data are collected. Episode 37 (22/09/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00y2wtw Episode 38 (29/09/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00yc3qs Misreporting the number of cod in the North Sea: Newspapers were reporting that the number of cod in the North Sea were down to extremely small and implausible numbers. An explanation of how these reports came out is given along with information on how this sort of estimation is done. Episode 39 (06/10/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00ymn8j Nate Silver and predicting the US 2012 Presidential Election outcome: A brief biography is given of Nate Silver who came to prominence by forecasting baseball players' performance and the outcome of the 2008 Presidential Election. The use of Bayes' theorem to update previous predictions is discussed. Longevity of mothers of UK and US politicians: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 version broadcast on 27/07/2012. See also Radio 4 Series 26 Episode 3 (27/07/2012). Episode 40 (13/10/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00yx5wn Episode 41 (20/10/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00z57x8 Matching algorithms, kidney exchanges and repugnant markets: An interview with Al Roth about matching algorithms and their implementation in a system of kidney transplant exchanges and repugnant markets. Episode 42 (27/10/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00zfxhw Episode 43 (03/11/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0104h4d Poverty line and measuring poverty: A common method of defining poverty is using a level relative to the median income in a country. However, this means that different countries have different poverty lines and a decrease in a country's median income can actually reduce the number of people living below the poverty line. This issue is discussed with reference to poverty in Australia along with other ways of measuring relative and absolute poverty. See also Radio 4 Series 22 Episode 6 (08/05/2011). Episode 44 (10/11/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0104k1d Nate Silver and predicting the US 2012 Presidential Election outcome: An update on the broadcast of 06/10/2012 is given following the success of Nate Silver's predictions for the 2012 Presidential Election. A discussion with someone from a traditional polling company takes place and the methods used by these companies and "aggregators"? such as Nate Silver are compared. See also World Service Episode 39 (06/10/2012). Hurricane Sandy's death toll: A discussion takes place about how the death toll from Hurricane Sandy and other weather events compares with the normal death toll. Are lives saved because people stay inside? Episode 45 (17/11/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p010c45y Chocolate consumption and Nobel Prizes: A study (Messerli, F.H. (2012) "Chocolate consumption, cognitive function, and Nobel laureates"?, New England Journal of Medicine, 367, 16, pp1562-1564) supposedly showed that those countries which consumed higher amounts of chocolate also won the most Nobel Prizes. The issue of correlation not being the same as causation is discussed. There is an interview where a p-value is explained in layman's language but oversimplified to the extent that it becomes wrong. See also http://deevybee.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/flaky-chocolate-and-new-england-journal.html and http://www.stats.org/stories/2012/Cacao_or_Caca_oct16_12.html. Episode 46 (24/11/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p010n7v5 Fergie time: In English football's Premier League it is often alleged that Manchester United get generous amounts of injury time added on by the referee when they are chasing a goal to draw or win a match. This has been nicknamed "Fergie time"? after their manager Alex Ferguson. An examination of whether this is real or not is undertaken, including a discussion of how the examination is carried out. See also Radio 4 Series 27 Episode 1 (23/11/2012). Counting casualties in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: The number of casualties in the latest stage of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was examined following claims made by one side. It emerged that it is hard to determine exactly what being a casualty means. If it is defined as being treated by medical staff then this includes people treated for shock but no physical injuries. The idea of it being easier to count deaths is discussed. See also Radio 4 Series 27 Episode 1 (23/11/2012). Episode 47 (01/12/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p010z9yx Zero and odd and even numbers: The issue of whether zero is an even number is discussed following the Mayor of New York having to say explicitly that it was being treated as even when a scheme for rationing petrol was being introduced. The mathematical properties are discussed. See also Radio 4 Series 27 Episode 3 (07/12/2012). Episode 48 (08/12/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p011cfv5 Morning sickness and the probability of having twins: Following the Duchess of Cambridge's hospitalisation with acute morning sickness, newspaper were speculating that she might be having twins. The association between acute morning sickness and having twins is investigated and the distinction between relative risk and absolute risk is discussed. See also Radio 4 Series 27 Episode 3 (07/12/2012). Episode 49 (15/12/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p011qhpd Describing numbers with words: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 14/12/2012. See also Radio 4 Series 27 Episode 4 (14/12/2012). Episode 50 (22/12/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p012184b Episode 51 (29/12/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p012bp5s Episode 52 (05/01/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p012nt7r Episode 53 (12/01/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0130rfv Episode 54 (19/01/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01361jk Episode 55 (26/01/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p013d1x8 Body Mass Index (BMI) and a possible replacement: The calculation of and uses of the Body Mass Index (BMI) is discussed. It is suggested that for some people, the categorisation of the continuous BMI into underweight, normal, overweight and obese is inappropriate. A possible replacement for the BMI calculation has been suggested and the roots of this suggestion are discussed. Episode 56 (02/02/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p013pckb Episode 57 (09/02/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p013zqpr Small-value coins: It was suggested that the USA should do away with its 1 cent coin but this was met by opposition. One of their arguments was that it would lead to an increase in prices with goods now priced $X.99 being rounded up and that this would damage the economy. An estimate of the percentage change on sales that it would bring about was given. Although the story did not include this calculation, one could look at the combined effect of a reduction in sales and increase in price, contrasting it with the effect on retailers of reducing prices to $X.95. Episode 58 (16/02/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0148ypf Manchester United followers: A survey was done to estimate the number of people in the world that were followers of Manchester United FC. The methodology for this survey was discussed which includes making estimates for countries where no data were collected. Contrasts are made with previous surveys. At one point the survey team representative claims that the margin of error is just 1%. Champions League draw probabilities: For the last-16 draw in the 2012/13 UEFA Champions League, the actual draw ended up being exactly the same as a rehearsal draw that had taken place earlier. The probability of this happening is discussed, given the various restrictions on which teams could be paired together. Episode 59 (23/02/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p014lhp9 Estimating the number of Roman Catholics: The difficulty of estimating the number of Roman Catholics in the world is explored. The various assumptions that need to be made and the estimation methods used are discussed. Episode 60 (02/03/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p014wlnq Episode 61 (09/03/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01568lx Estimating the number of people living with HIV: Estimates of the number of people in the world living with HIV suggested that programmes aimed at preventing the spread of HIV were being successful. However, changes to the way in which the calculations are done might be affecting things. The difficulty of merging different types of data sources are discussed. Episode 62 (16/03/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p015hqn2 Episode 63 (23/03/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p015tb9t Big data: A discussion of what "Big Data" is, where it comes from, what it can be used for and difficulties associated with it. See also Radio 4 Series 29 Episode 1 (30/08/2013), Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 7 (13/06/2014) and World Service Episode 145 (17/10/2014). Episode 64 (30/03/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0164626 Episode 65 (06/04/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p016tmj7 Communicating risk: Following the conviction in an Italian court of scientists who were judged to have given insufficient warning of the risk of an earthquake in L'Aquila which killed 300 people, the ramifications for the communication of risk are discussed. Episode 66 (13/04/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p016tpsr Episode 67 (20/04/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0173h00 Episode 68 (27/04/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p017cr7s Repeat testing of murder weapon for DNA to increase evidence: An appeal against a murder conviction was upheld, partly because the DNA test that matched blood on the murder weapon to the accused was considered unreliable. The judge decided it was not worth re-testing the DNA because it would be one unreliable test following another. However, it is argued in the programme that, in general, repeated testing can increase the amount of evidence available. Parallels with tossing coins are given. Unexpected events can be expected to happen in large populations: A nurse in the Netherlands was convicted, partly as a result of a probability calculation concerning the chances of her being present at some many deaths or near-deaths. In her trial, evidence was presented which showed she was not present at some of these but the calculation was not redone. Had it been redone, the probability would still have been small but not as extreme. When one subsequently takes into account the number of nurses in the Netherlands then it is likely that at least one nurse would encounter these unusual circumstances without anything untoward being the cause. Episode 69 (04/05/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p017pz1n Episode 70 (11/05/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p017zsfw Episode 71 (18/05/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0188t37 Angelina Jolie's cancer risk: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 17/05/2012. See also Radio 4 Series 28 Episode 3 (17/05/2013). Episode 72 (25/05/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p018lgph Episode 73 (01/06/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p018x24m Episode 74 (08/06/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0196ln9 Statistical stories related to parenthood: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 07/06/2013. See also Radio 4 Series 28 Episode 6 (07/06/2013). Men think about sex every seven seconds: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 07/06/2013. See also Radio 4 Series 28 Episode 6 (07/06/2013). Episode 75 (15/06/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p019k47f Every fifteen seconds a child dies of hunger: This statistic is obtained by dividing the number of seconds in a year by the number of children dying of hunger. It is an easier statistic for people to understand than a large number of deaths. The issues behind the numbers are discussed. Episode 76 (22/06/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p019v1cc Episode 77 (29/06/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01b4nps Life expectancy - world trends and calculation methods: Changes in life expectancy across the world are discussed. How life expectancy is calculated is explained and issues of mean, median and mode are included. See also World Service Episode 185 (24/07/2015). Episode 78 (06/07/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01bg6fg Episode 79 (13/07/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01brr8j Sizes of protests in Egypt: Various claims had been made about the size of protests in Egypt. The sources of these claims are investigated and issues about how to count crowds are addressed. Episode 80 (20/07/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01c2m3k Episode 81 (27/07/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01cdg7k Episode 82 (03/08/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01cpcyl Episode 83 (10/08/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01dnm5l Episode 84 (17/08/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01dyvcn Episode 85 (24/08/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01fc5vh Lots of coffee increases the chances of dying (at any given moment): A study concluded that drinking lots of coffee each day increased the chances of dying at any given moment (not simply the chances of dying as reported in some places). This conclusion is explained, including in the discussion issues of relative and absolute risk and uncertainty in trials. Advice on what (not) to eat and drink in pregnancy is looked at, explaining that randomised control trials (RCTs) are not available for these circumstances. Episode 86 (31/08/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01fnz3s Episode 87 (07/09/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01fyvkc Episode 88 (14/09/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01g94yk Episode 89 (21/09/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01gpt6t Episode 90 (28/09/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01h5j4s Episode 91 (05/10/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01hnv98 Episode 92 (12/10/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01j5xb1 Hawthorne effect: A version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 27/09/2013. See also Radio 4 Series 29 Episode 5 (27/09/2013) and Radio 4 Series 11 Episode 1 (23/10/2006). Episode 93 (19/10/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01jns26 Episode 94 (26/10/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01k0kr6 Episode 95 (02/11/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01kdgsw Episode 96 (09/11/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01ksh8m Opinions cloud judgements: People's ability to assess numbers is affected by their own personal beliefs and what they would wish the data to show. They look for something in the data which confirms their belief rather than employing critical evaluation of the evidence. Episode 97 (16/11/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01l9jm8 Episode 98 (23/11/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01lp3yd Personalised medicine: An interview with Terry Speed about the statistical work he has undertaken over the years and the possibilities it has opened up for personalising medicine. Diagnoses can now be made on the basis of comparing patient data with specific knowledge about the biological nature of diseases and conditions. Episode 99 (30/11/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01m367d FIFA rankings: An explanation of how the FIFA international rankings are created is given. It is highlighted that the choice of friendly opponents made by countries can make a difference to their ranking because the points awarded are averaged over all the matches played. Winning against a lowly opponent can lead to a decrease in ranking because few points are awarded but the game counts as another over which the cumulative points are averaged. It is pointed out that for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, the Netherlands would have been one of the top seeds had they not played (and won) a friendly against Indonesia. Countries can thus manipulate their ranking by choice of friendly opponents and by making friendlies not count towards the rankings by having more substitutes than normally allowed. What is not mentioned, but which is the clear lesson to be learned, is that the methodology for creating the rankings is flawed if it allows this sort of thing to happen. Episode 100 (07/12/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01mlxhv Episode 101 (14/12/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01mzmph Episode 102 (21/12/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01n9ft7 Episode 103 (28/12/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01ndgyf Episode 104 (04/01/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01nrgdj Episode 105 (11/01/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01p1742 Episode 106 (18/01/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01pnzhr Episode 107 (25/01/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01q5cfc Alcohol and mouth cancer: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 25/01/2014. See also Radio 4 Series 30 Episode 6 (24/01/2014). Episode 108 (01/02/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01qkfnp Episode 109 (08/02/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01r89yx Episode 110 (15/02/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01ryk69 Episode 111 (22/02/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01sbmjs Neknomination's spread as an epidemic: The spread of the Neknomination drinking game (where people are challenged to video themselves drinking and put it on the internet) is likened to the spread of an epidemic. Rates of "infection" and number of "susceptibles" are discussed. Episode 112 (01/03/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01sqly1 Talent versus practice - the 10,000 hours rule: The "10,000 hours rule" where it is claimed that exceptional ability at anything can be learned by practicing for 10,000 hours rather than by talent is discussed. The lack of statistical rigour in the original academic paper is discussed together with the misinterpretations of that paper which have followed from it. Episode 113 (08/03/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01t399q Episode 114 (15/03/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01tjcwp Episode 115 (22/03/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01v5sqh Using Bayes to find an aeroplane: A description is given of how Bayesian probability methods were used to look for an aeroplane which had crashed into the sea. It includes an example of how the methods can be sensitive to the prior probabilities used and also how it is easy to update analyses when more data is available. See also Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 1 (02/05/2014). Episode 116 (29/03/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01w26gt French people in London: Some estimates of the number of French people living in London make it seem like it could be the 6th largest French city in the world. However, the numbers depend on what definitions and sources are used. An explanation of confidence intervals is included. See also Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 3 (16/05/2014). Episode 117 (01/04/2014, 04/04/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01w8qqm, http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01wd03f Episode 118 (11/04/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01wtd1b Episode 119 (18/04/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01x7n87 Favourite numbers: An international survey of people's favourite numbers gave 7 as the most popular. Although data on the frequency with which each number was chosen is available, ancillary information that was collected has not been and there does not appear to have been any attempt to weight to responses by nationality or anything else. The idea of people considering some numbers to be more "random" than others is also included. Episode 120 (25/04/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01xmswc Episode 121 (04/05/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01y27t9 Episode 122 (09/05/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01ycqg2 Episode 123 (16/05/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01ys3t5 Episode 124 (23/05/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01z6f6p Probability and risk: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 23/05/2014. See also Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 4 (23/05/2014). Episode 125 (30/05/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01zmghb Episode 126 (06/06/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0201hpg Spurious correlations: An alternative version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 23/05/2014. See also Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 4 (23/05/2014). Probabilities in office sweepstakes: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 06/06/2014. See also Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 6 (06/06/2014). Episode 127 (13/06/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p020gkp9 Tossing a coin to help make decisions: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 06/06/2014. See also Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 6 (06/06/2014) and Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 7 (13/06/2014). Birthday paradox: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 13/06/2014. See also Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 7 (13/06/2014). Episode 128 (20/06/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p020wmlx Giving international aid with a randomised controlled trial: A report on a randomised controlled trial where international aid was given at random to some of those in need and not to others. Episode 129 (29/06/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p021f1bd Episode 130 (04/07/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p021q7h2 Episode 131 (11/07/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0224gwp Probability with Willy Wonka's Golden Tickets: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 16/05/2014. See also Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 3 (16/05/2014). Episode 132 (18/07/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p022m7bg Episode 133 (25/07/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p023276m Episode 134 (01/08/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p023fdxl Clusters of aeroplane crashes: After three aeroplanes crashed in the space of eight days, the chances of observing a cluster like this are investigated. The Poisson distribution is discussed. Episode 135 (10/08/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0244jdt Episode 136 (15/08/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p024dzqm Measuring anti-Semitism: A study that tried to measure the level of anti-Semitism is discussed, including its method of asking a number of questions and then dichotomising the sums if yes and no answers. See also Radio 4 Series 32 Episode 4 (05/09/2014). Episode 137 (22/08/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p024tkm2 Episode 138 (29/08/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0257hwf Episode 139 (05/09/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p025n8bd Episode 140 (12/09/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0262nmk Measuring vocabulary: The Radio 4 version broadcast on 05/09/2014 is broadcast on the World Service. See also Radio 4 Series 32 Episode 4 (05/09/2014). Episode 141 (19/09/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p026j78d Episode 142 (28/09/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02725mf Episode 143 (03/10/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p027d3hd Episode 144 (10/10/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p027tqp4 Measuring reductions in wildlife: WWF and ZSL produced a report which claimed that the number of animals in the wild had reduced by 50% between 1970 and 2010. Two issues with this were identified. Firstly, the 50% figure was the result of averaging percentages so in reality the number of animals had not gone down by 50%. The fictitious example is given of 1970 figures for frogs being 10 and birds 100. If 2010 figures were 2 for frogs (80% reduction) and 80 for birds (20% reduction) then an average of 50% was being claimed when total numbers had reduced from 110 to 82. Secondly, the report had taken surveys of animal numbers from all over the world and weighted them to take account of the amount of the world covered by these surveys. However, concern was expressed that surveys may be more targeted towards threatened populations and thus the weighting applied might not be appropriate. See also Radio 4 Series 33 Episode 3 (16/01/2015) Episode 145 (17/10/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p028cm6q Big Data: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 13/06/2014. See also World Service Episode 63 (23/03/2013), Radio 4 Series 29 Episode 1 (30/08/2013) and Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 7 (13/06/2014). Episode 146 (24/10/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p028v4lw Episode 147 (01/11/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p029cx8y Episode 148 (08/11/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p029twnn Ebola in Liberia: Hans Rosling, co-founder of Gapminder, is in Liberia to help with the Ebola crisis. He talks about how Ebola is behaving as an epidemic, including its reproductive number, infection patterns, treatment and its reporting by the media. Episode 149 (15/11/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02bbx9q National positions in league tables: An apparent increase in the number of league tables of countries is investigated. Some are identified as having good underlying methodologies whereas others have poor methodologies. See also Radio 4 Series 13 Episode 6 (03/12/2007), Radio 4 Series 13 Episode 7 (10/12/2007) and Radio 4 Series 33 Episode 2 (09/01/2015). Episode 150 (22/11/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02by4yf Episode 151 (29/11/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02clw50 Episode 152 (06/12/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02d20kx Episode 153 (13/12/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02dmyj1 Episode 154 (20/12/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02f4xzd Episode 155 (27/12/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02f8m9x Heights of Premier League goalkeepers: The average height of a Premier League goalkeeper in 2014 was 6'3.5" (1.92m). This is compared with the average height forty years previously (6'0", 1.83m). Extrapolations are given that reach unlikely levels in future years, highlighting the (unmentioned) fact that making such extrapolations can be dangerous. Also ignored is the fact that with a wider population of potential goalkeepers to choose from now than forty years ago due to the globalisation of the Premier League, one would have expected the average height to have gone up as increased height is an advantage in this position. Episode 156 (03/01/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02fnlh7 Episode 157 (10/01/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02g0cmh Episode 158 (17/01/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02gmpbp Episode 159 (24/01/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02h3hlg Episode 160 (31/01/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02hl73h Predicted dates of birth: The Radio 4 version of 30/01/2015 is repeated for the World Service broadcast. Two pregnant women have been given the same predicted date for giving birth but what are the chances of them both giving birth on the same day? For an individual mother, the probability of giving birth on the due date is 4.4% so the chances of them both giving birth on the due date is 4.4%*4.4% = 1 in 300. Other figures that are quoted is that the chances of birth occurring four days after the due date is slightly more than 4.4%, there is a 94% chance of birth occurring within two weeks of the due date and the chances of the two women giving birth on the same day (but not necessarily the due date) is 1 in 30. See also Radio 4 Series 33 Episode 5 (30/01/2015), World Service Episode 277 (28/04/2017). Episode 161 (07/02/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02j0p7l Strenuous jogging is bad for you: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 06/02/2015. Reports claim that a study has shown that strenuous jogging is worse for health than no exercise at all. However upon investigation it turned out that the study contained just two strenuous joggers who had died. The dangers of extrapolating from small numbers is discussed. See also Radio 4 Series 33 Episode 6 (06/02/2015), World Service Episode 167 (21/03/2015), Radio 4 Series 34 Episode 1 (01/05/2015). Episode 162 (14/02/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02jhfpq Episode 163 (21/02/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02k0wv4 Episode 164 (28/02/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02kj60t Episode 165 (07/03/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02l0c1c Episode 166 (14/03/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02lgpyz Healthy life expectancy in UK and Rwanda: A report suggested that babies born in the most deprived areas of the UK have a shorter healthy life expectancy than Rwanda. This claim is investigated, focussing on the dangers of combining data with different definitions from different sources. Episode 167 (21/03/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02lzmh6 Strenuous jogging is bad for you: An update on this story where the researchers concede that they did not have enough evidence to draw the conclusions they did about strenuous jogging. See also Radio 4 Series 33 Episode 6 (06/02/2015), World Service Episode 161 (07/02/2015), Radio 4 Series 34 Episode 1 (01/05/2015). Episode 168 (28/03/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02mgk4y Episode 169 (03/04/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02mvyjb Episode 170 (10/04/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02ngjdg Episode 171 (17/04/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02ntq6q Episode 172 (24/04/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02pc4yt Episode 173 (01/05/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02pw68m Episode 174 (08/05/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02qd9gp Episode 175 (15/05/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02qx0dx Episode 176 (22/05/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02rf5qj Episode 177 (29/05/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02ryjhb Episode 178 (05/06/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02sftfp Probability in GCSE Maths: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 05/06/2015. A GCSE Maths paper in 2015 contained a question combining probability and algebra. The question is explained and answers given. See also Radio 4 Series 34 Episode 6 (05/06/2015). Episode 179 (12/06/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02sytll Chocolate consumption and weight loss: The Radio 4 broadcast of 05/06/2015 is repeated on the World Service. A randomised control trial (RCT) was conducted using 3 groups - control, low carbohydrate diet and low carbohydrate diet with daily chocolate. Results showed weight loss in the two low carbohydrate groups with greater loss in the group where chocolate was also eaten. A paper was published in an online journal and a press release was issued, leading to stories in newspapers. However, it was a deliberately gad study with only 5 people per group and many potential outcomes measured. The paper did not explain these shortcomings and was submitted to a journal which it was believed would not carry out appropriate peer review. This highlights the issues of multiple testing and sample size as well as the importance of good peer review and standards of some journals. Also discussed are ethical issues connected with allowing the story to reach the popular press and whether journalists should be expected to assess the worth of scientific articles or trust the scientific literature. See also Radio 4 Series 34 Episode 6 (05/06/2015). Episode 180 (19/06/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02tj83n Month of birth predicts health: A study looked for links between month of birth and later prevalence of health conditions, finding a number of associations. The discussion looks at the multiple comparison issue and reveals that this was taken into account by the study so the associations found do have some foundation. However, they only analysed data from births in one New York hospital meaning that it is plausible that environmental factors could impact on future health and that it is dangerous to try and extrapolate from a limited sample to a larger population. Episode 181 (26/06/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02v2l1x Episode 182 (03/07/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02vmb62 Episode 183 (10/07/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02w68zj Episode 184 (17/07/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02wq7pt Episode 185 (24/07/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02x9m2q Life expectancy - world trends and calculation methods: A discussion of how life expectancy has changed around the world. Includes a discussion about estimating using the mean, median or mode. See also World Service Episode 77 (29/06/2013). Episode 186 (31/07/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02xxftf Episode 187 (07/08/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02ybvn5 Episode 188 (14/08/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02yg705 Episode 189 (21/08/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02yy6jr Episode 190 (28/08/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p030csr5 Episode 191 (04/09/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03115gg Queuing in reverse: The Radio 4 broadcast of 04/09/2015 is repeated on the World Service. It is explained that a queuing system where the last person in the queue was always served first could be the most efficient method from an overall time point of view. However it is also explained that it would be impractical in most situations. See also Radio 4 Series 35 Episode 4 (04/09/2015). Episode 192 (11/09/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p031mxcw Episode 193 (18/09/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0329klb Episode 194 (25/09/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p032x56p Reproducibility project: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast of 25/09/2015 is broadcast on the World Service. A project to try and reproduce the results of 100 psychology experiments concluded that only 39% successfully replicated the outcomes and many effect sizes were half what the original paper showed. A discussion of selective publishing, selective analysis and publication bias and possible solutions occurs. See also Radio 4 Series 35 Episode 7 (25/09/2015). Episode 195 (02/10/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p033l4f4 Episode 196 (09/10/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0343hhk Taller people more likely to get cancer: A study in Sweden concluded that tall people were more likely to get cancer than shorter people. The details behind this study are discussed and a rationale for the result given. A discussion of relative and absolute risk is included. Episode 197 (16/10/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p034qpby Episode 198 (23/10/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p035q0sb Episode 199 (30/10/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p035yyjl Episode 200 (06/11/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p036lgb4 Episode 201 (13/11/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p037klyj Mental illness and creativity: A study showed that creativity was higher amongst people with mental illness. However, although the effect was significant, its size was very small. Also discussed are the difficulties of defining creativity and mental illness. Episode 202 (20/11/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p037wyhc Episode 203 (27/11/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p038klfj Extent of UK Muslim support for extremists: A survey into the level of sympathy held by UK Muslims for individuals travelling to join Islamic State fighters in the Middle East was reported as being the level of support for Jihadism. The way in which the media misreport the nuances of surveys is discussed along with the impact that the wording of questions can have on the results of a survey. The issue of wanting comparability with previous work is also discussed. Episode 204 (04/12/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03999ky Episode 205 (11/12/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0396yn5 Episode 206 (18/12/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p039nljx Episode 207 (25/12/2015) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p039zq48 Episode 208 (01/01/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03bg3n2 Episode 209 (08/01/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03ddzrw Episode 210 (15/01/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03dvh7d Episode 211 (22/01/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03fj84x Episode 212 (29/01/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03g5p7d Episode 213 (05/02/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03gyh0m E-cigarettes and quitting smoking: A longer version of the Radio 4 broadcast of 05/02/2016 is broadcast on the World Service. A study suggested that using e-cigarettes actually had a detrimental effect on trying to stop smoking. This was a meta-analysis and was criticised by many for combining studies that did not look at the same issue (some were looking at users of e-cigarettes who were trying to quit and some were looking at all users of e-cigarettes). See also Radio 4 Series 36 Episode 5 (05/02/2016). Episode 214 (12/02/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03hlfl4 Birthday probabilities: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast of 05/02/2016 is broadcast on the World Service. A listener asked about the probability of two of his three children having the same birthday as him. The probability is calculated which includes having to allow for either parent matching and any two of three children matching. The slightly uneven spread of births across the year is also discussed. See also Radio 4 Series 36 Episode 5 (05/02/2016). Episode 215 (19/02/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03j8wv7 Episode 216 (26/02/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03k0bx2 Episode 217 (04/03/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03kpvk2 Episode 218 (11/03/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03lfc7r Collecting and analysing food consumption data: The difficulties of collecting data on food consumption, including the Food Frequency Questionnaire and trying to verify its findings with the 24 Food Recall. The questionable nature of some research into food is demonstrated using the multiple comparisons problem and examples of spurious correlation and correlations caused by associations with a third variable. See also Radio 4 Series 37 Episode 1 (01/04/2016). Episode 219 (18/03/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03m6hb7 Episode 220 (25/03/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03n3b0b Dangers of alcohol consumption: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast of 05/02/2016 is broadcast on the World Service. Following the issuing of stricter advice on limiting alcohol consumption, the difficulties of conducting research into this topic are discussed. It is difficult to get a sample of non-drinkers to compare with drinkers because non-drinkers are often in this category as a result of reasons such as previous over-consumption or religion/abstention. Also discussed are the difficulties of collecting reliable data as people under report consumption. See also Radio 4 Series 36 Episode 4 (29/01/2016). Episode 221 (01/04/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03nzsw6 Episode 222 (08/04/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03pnkns History of the mean: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 version of 08/04/2016 is broadcast on the World Service. A history of the mean including where it was first used and the idea of the "average man". See also Radio 4 Series 37 Episode 2 (08/04/2016). Episode 223 (15/04/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03qc7b7 Life expectancy of Popes: Survival analysis of historical ages of Popes at death. See also Radio 4 Series 37 Episode 4 (22/04/2016). Episode 224 (22/04/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03xvfp5 Episode 225 (29/04/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03rsqkc Simpson's Paradox: A slightly extended version of the Radio 4 broadcast of 29/04/2016. Simpson's Paradox is discussed with reference to the discovery that at University of California, Berkeley, admission acceptance rates for males and females were roughly equal in each department but overall more males were being offered places than females. The reason for this paradox was that women were more likely to be applying for courses that had higher rejection rates, with the reverse being the case for males. The paradox is also discussed with reference to auditions for a fictitious choir. See also Radio 4 Series 7 Episode 3 (27/01/2005), Radio 4 Series 37 Episode 5 (29/04/2016), Radio 4 Series 41 Episode 1 (25/08/2017). Episode 226 (06/05/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03sjpvw Episode 227 (13/05/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03t6ntw Episode 228 (20/05/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03tzbnx Episode 229 (27/05/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03vnz88 Episode 230 (03/06/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03wd0v4 Episode 231 (10/06/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03x37ph Episode 232 (17/06/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03xvfp5 Episode 233 (24/06/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03yl1xh Episode 234 (01/07/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03z8w99 Episode 235 (08/07/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0401hs7 Episode 236 (15/07/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p040s3rz Episode 237 (22/07/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p041hcy9 Episode 238 (29/07/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04263xf Algorithms and sorting efficiency: An extended version of the Radio 4 broadcast of 29/07/2016 including explanations of and comparisons of bubble sort and merge sort. A discussion of algorithms and their efficiency including whether or not it is worthwhile sorting some things like emails. See also Radio 4 Series 38 Episode 1 (29/07/2016). Episode 239 (05/08/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p042wn06 Episode 240 (12/08/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p043n37d Episode 241 (19/08/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p044dmzh Episode 242 (26/08/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04544wg Episode 243 (02/09/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p045wh04 Synchronisation of menstrual cycles: A slightly extended version of the Radio 4 broadcast of 02/09/2016. Anecdotal and past research says that women who live in close proximity are likely to synchronise their menstrual cycles. However, is the synchronisation observed more than what would happen by random chance? See also Radio 4 Series 38 Episode 6 (02/09/2016). Episode 244 (12/09/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p046kfn2 Episode 245 (19/09/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p047k2v6 Episode 246 (23/09/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0480cfc Episode 247 (30/09/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p048qwqs US Presidential Election 2016 and internet polls: Despite political pundits and carefully produced surveys suggesting that Hillary Clinton had done better than Donald Trump in a presidential election debate, the Trump campaign claimed their candidate had done better because lots of internet-based polls gave this result and that because of the large numbers of people taking part, they were as reliable as smaller surveys with carefully designed samples. The advantages of careful sample design are discussed and contrasted with internet-based surveys. Episode 248 (07/10/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p047xnmj Episode 249 (14/10/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04b6ywk Sentencing offenders using statistics: A scoring system to help judges in America, when sentencing, take into account the probability of reoffending is criticised for not being open to scrutiny and unfairly disadvantaging those from minority ethnic backgrounds. An analysis by one group which concluded that an ethnic bias exists is criticised by some as having tortured the data to get the conclusions they desired. Nevertheless if the scoring system is based upon reoffending statistics collected from a system biased against particular groups then the scores will reflect this bias. Episode 250 (21/10/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04bygxx Episode 251 (28/10/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04cnnxs Black box algorithms: A slightly shorter version of the Radio 4 broadcast of 02/09/2016. Algorithms that are used in everyday life and affect the way we live are discussed, particularly those whose internal workings are hidden from public view. Examples are given and ways of "gaming" the algorithms discussed. See also Radio 4 Series 38 Episode 6 (02/09/2016). Episode 252 (04/11/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04dcv8v Episode 253 (11/11/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04f31n8 Episode 254 (18/11/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04fwwsx Episode 255 (25/11/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04gsylq Estimating the number of asteroids that have not been detected: To estimate the number of asteroids that have not yet been detected, one can compare list of known asteroids with new surveys to estimate proportion previously unknown. One can also simulate physical models and compare with observed data to identify most plausible model and thus estimate numbers of asteroids as yet undetected. Episode 256 (02/12/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04ht71l How not to test public opinion: Following the Indian government's decision to remove certain bank notes from circulation, the Indian Prime Minister sought public opinion via a smartphone app. He then went on to present the results as strongly supporting his government's policy. However there are many issues with the survey, from having citizens excluded because of language or lack of technology to questions with no options to disagree to the use of leading questions and the creation of an atmosphere which favours certain responses. A clip from the sitcom "Yes, Prime Minister" is used to demonstrate an example of the latter. Episode 257 (09/12/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04jvj5b Risks associated with the contraceptive pill: A study by a team from Denmark of 1 million women showed that there was a statistically significant increase in the probability of them taking pills prescribed for depression if they were taking the contraceptive pill. A discussion highlights the fact that the actual increase is very small and that statistical significance does not necessarily imply an important effect or a causal link. Also discussed is the habit of media reports highlighting large increased relative risks when the increase in absolute risk may be small. Episode 258 (16/12/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04kj3hl Episode 259 (23/12/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04knlvj Models for targeted healthcare: Decisions about how to allocate healthcare resources in developing countries often have to make use of data which are not as good as one would wish. The doctoral work of Justice Aheto is discussed in which modelling of the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (GDHS) enables locations to be targeted for healthcare funds in a better way. Also discussed is the potential for linking datasets to gain insights and how improvements in data collection can help. Episode 260 (30/12/2016) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04kt3p6 Episode 261 (06/01/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04mwrht Episode 262 (13/01/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04nhf7m Episode 263 (23/01/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04plx5g Episode 264 (27/01/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04q2nr2 Counting crowds: Following Donald Trump's inauguration as US President, his supporters claimed that more had attended the event than had Barack Obama's inaugurations, despite photographs clearly showing this to be untrue. The ways in which crowd sizes are estimated are discussed. Episode 265 (03/02/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04qx6dr Electoral Integrity Index: An index of electoral integrity ranked the US state of North Carolina alongside notable non-democracies such as Cuba. A discussion of how this came about takes place. Although it is not mentioned explicitly, there are connections that can be made to index creation and particularly construct validity. Episode 266 (10/02/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04sbvlt Episode 267 (17/02/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04sf934 Episode 268 (24/02/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04t4kb7 Episode 269 (03/03/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04tv4wh Episode 270 (10/03/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04vlq5r Episode 271 (17/03/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04wc8kb Episode 272 (24/03/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04x307l Episode 273 (31/03/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04y3z0y Difficulties of measuring mental illness: A statistic concerning the prevalence of mental health problems is investigated. Included is the difficulty in measuring this type of issue, relying on self-reporting of subjective symptoms. Episode 274 (07/04/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04ykfsz Episode 275 (14/04/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04yzrw0 Episode 276 (21/04/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04zvrj7 Death rates in the middle-aged USA: A study claimed that the death rate in middle-aged white Americans was going up, reversing a long-standing trend. However, the age-profile of this middle-aged group was such that at the start of the period studied, the average age was lower than it was at the end of the period studied, due to "baby boomers" moving through the age-group. A reanalysis adjusting for this showed that the death rate was more static than rising. Once gender was also taken into account, it revealed that the death rate was going up for women and for men it was going down, having initially gone up. Ethnicity and education level also show different trends. Episode 277 (28/04/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p050nqjq (broadcast version) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p051f6yn (podcast version) Predicted dates of birth: Podcast version only. A repeat of the World Service broadcast of 31/01/2015. See also World Service Episode 160 (31/01/2015). Episode 278 (05/05/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p051m0j4 Episode 279 (12/05/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p052806s Episode 280 (19/05/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p052yb0f Episode 281 (26/05/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p053ln9f Episode 282 (02/06/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0548s7y Episode 283 (09/06/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p054y2t6 African footballers dying from heart attacks while playing: In the last 10 years, 64 players have died while playing football (in games or training) according to Wikipedia (it is acknowledged that this is not an ideal source but there is no other readily available). A total of 26 (about 40%) are thought to be from African countries whilst they are about 17% of the world's football players. There is bound to be under-reporting of deaths but it is unlikely that African deaths would be more likely to be reported than those from elsewhere in the world. Of the 64 deaths, 45 are reported as having been from heart attack (20 African, 25 non-African). Although the data are not perfect, it indicates that further investigations may be worthwhile, particularly as players of African heritage who have died in Europe are not being counted as being African in the above statistics. Studies from the USA show that black athletes are more likely to die than non-blacks. Data from follow-up of the Football Association's screening programme of players aged around 16 signing pre-contractural agreements indicates that black players are more likely to have died than white players. A biological explanation is suggested. Episode 284 (16/06/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p055mn3z Episode 285 (23/06/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p05691ly Episode 286 (30/06/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p056y940 Penalty shoot-out sequences: A slightly extended version of the Radio 4 broadcast of 12/05/2017 including a comparison of the Thue-Morse sequence to some song lyrics. It has been observed that teams that go first in penalty shootouts where turns alternate are more likely to win (around 60% of the time). A trial is being carried out to a ABBA,ABBA,ABBA,… system so that the psychological advantage changes. This is still not entirely fair as B is always catching up with A's advantage and never has a greater advantage than A. The Thue-Morse sequence ABBA,BAAB,BAAB,ABBA,… is an even fairer system as the advantage alternates, but there are questions as to the confusion it might create. See also Radio 4 Series 40 Episode 5 (12/05/2017). Episode 287 (10/07/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p057l3fx Random seat allocation on Ryanair: To be guaranteed a particular seat on a Ryanair flight (e.g. to be by the aisle/window or with others in your group), you have to pay a fee. If you choose not to do this, Ryanair state that you will be allocated a seat at random. A group of four researchers booked as a group on four different flights. They did not pay this fee and were allocated middle seats on all occasions. On one flight there were 65 available seats to which the researchers could have been allocated (although it is not specified in the programme, presumably these are 61 empty seats plus the 4 they occupied). The chances of the researchers all being allocated middle seats is then quite small and when you include the fact that they had middle seats on all four flights, the chances of this happening if the allocation is truly random is very small. Ryanair explain that the random allocation is done after removing from the pool of possible seats those which are more popular with people who do play the additional fee and may be checking in nearer the departure date than the researchers. Episode 288 (17/07/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0587gl9 Episode 289 (21/07/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p058w7nf Episode 290 (31/07/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p059hnbq Episode 291 (07/08/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p05b3lcz Episode 292 (14/08/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cstyf5 Episode 293 (21/08/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cstyf6 Episode 294 (28/08/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cstyf7 Episode 295 (04/09/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cstyf8 Episode 296 (11/09/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cstyf9 Episode 297 (15/09/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cstyfb Episode 298 (25/09/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cstyfc Episode 299 (02/10/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cstyfd Episode 300 (09/10/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cstyff Episode 301 (16/10/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cstyfg Episode 302 (20/10/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cstyfh Episode 303 (30/10/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cstyfj Episode 304 (05/11/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3c Episode 305 (12/11/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3d Episode 306 (17/11/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3f Episode 307 (26/11/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3g Episode 308 (03/12/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3h Episode 309 (10/12/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3j Randomised controlled trials and chocolate: A randomised controlled trial is discussed. It found interesting results concerning the effect of a food component on the ability to perform a cognitive task. This was reported in an exaggerated way by a university press office and newspapers, claiming that eating chocolate could improve memory. The issue of trials being funded by chocolate manufacturers is also discussed with suggestions that it may introduce biases, not only in terms of certain results being preferred but also in terms of what's questions are asked (e.g. only benefits to health being investigated). Episode 310 (15/12/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3k Episode 311 (24/12/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3l Episode 312 (31/12/2017) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3m Episode 313 (07/01/2018) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3n Episode 314 (14/01/2018) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3p Episode 315 (21/01/2018) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3q Episode 316 (28/01/2018) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3r Representativeness of the US census: The possibility of adding a question about citizenship to the US census is raising concerns about the effect this will have on response rates in different ethnic groups and thus the representativeness of the census. The effect of this will reduce the apparent population in certain cities and states more than others if, as suspected, some ethnic groups will be reluctant to complete the census as a result. This has the potential to redistribute money and political representation. Episode 317 (02/02/2018) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3s Accuracy of the groundhog: The World Service Special Edition of 18/02/2012 is repeated as a bonus podcast item, in addition to the usual broadcast. See http://moreorless.wikia.com/wiki/Browse_the_World_Service_episodes World Service Episode 6 (Special Edition) (18/02/2012)]. Episode 318 (11/02/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3t Episode 319 (18/02/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3v Debunking guide on a postcard: Six key points to bear in mind when considering dubious statistics can be written on a postcard. 1) Observe your feelings; 2) Understand the claim; 3) Get the backstory; 4) Put things in perspective; 5) Embrace imprecision; 6) Be curious. This story was also presented in the Financial Times as "Tim Harford’s guide to statistics in a misleading age" along with a separate audio broadcast "A citizen's guide to statistics". Episode 320 (25/02/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3w Episode 321 (02/03/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3x Episode 322 (11/03/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3y Episode 323 (16/03/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq3z Episode 324 (25/03/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvq40 Investigating reported fraud in Russian elections: The 2018 presidential elections in Russia resulted in a large win for Vladimir Putin. Reports from neutral observers suggested that there were some instances of fraud taking place with the number of votes cast being more than the number of people who had come to the polling station. There were also videos of people covering CCTV cameras and putting multiple voting forms into ballot boxes. Data from the approximately 97,000 precincts are available online and can be analysed. There turns out to be more precincts than one would expect which have turnout percentages which are round numbers. This pattern dates back to 2004 elections and has become stronger in recent years. The distribution of turnout percentages does not have a Normal distribution with departures at round percentages. In 2012 there was a crackdown on unfair election practices and the departure from Normality was less in that year. Overall, the unusual results do not make a difference to the result as Putin's margin of victory was so large but the manipulations did mean that he got the votes of over half of all registered voters. Episode 325 (01/04/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswk20 Episode 326 (08/04/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswk21 Episode 327 (15/04/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswk22 Episode 328 (22/04/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswk23 Episode 329 (29/04/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswk24 Episode 330 (06/05/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswk25 Episode 331 (13/05/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswk26 Episode 332 (20/05/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswk27 Episode 333 (27/05/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswk28 Episode 334 (03/06/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswk29 Episode 335 (08/06/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswk2b Episode 336 (17/06/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswk2c Episode 337 (24/06/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswk2d Episode 338 (01/07/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswk2f Episode 339 (08/07/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswk2g Episode 340 (15/07/2018) URL: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswk2h ---- Go back to More Or Less Wiki main page